Best. Mar……….. You Know The Drill!
Oh Boy. I really could get used to this.
1 post every mth, “Best ____ Ever” everytime.
I’d let the stats do the talking:
With yesterday’s massive rise, a huge 15.61% portfolio gain in a single day, the ROI has shot up to 37.76% YTD.
NAV sits at USD 606,056.73, crossing the USD 600k mark for the 1st time (For US portfolio), with no capital injections too.
Taking into account a withdrawal of USD16.90, the total net capital gains YTD is… USD 165,001.13!
EDIT: Did math wrongly. With a withdrawal of USD 16.90, the total net capital gains should be USD 165,018.20!
Obviously, the ride hasn’t been 1 way up though.
The 1 day spike yesterday masked a period of a few tough weeks when the ROI kept dropping (see in chart)
The reason for that is my US portfolio’s huge exposure to Wirecard.
With the latest report by the esteemed Rajah&Tan, the markets’ fears were proven wrong, and my wirecard positions jumped a cool 26% in a single night.
The numbers being thrown around prior to this were confirmed in the report, and they are puny. A mis statement of 2mil euros ++ for a company with over 2bil euro in revenue….
That’s 3 decimal places. I don’t even know how they are going to restate that in the financials.
But those numbers haven’t changed. What really happened is that the markets are now reassured that this is just a small insignificant event, and not the worst case scenario of widespread fraud that some doomsayers were forecasting.
Since the position is worth 6 digit euros, it added strongly to the outperformance.
37.76%! I mean, I honestly would’ve taken half of that number and closed out the year if you made me that offer at the start of 2019.
37.76% beats almost every professional US fund manager I track. Even Bill Ackman is a tad behind at 31.9%
I’ve sold several calls yesterday to take advantage of the spike in volatility, but the nett position remains a long one. Very much so in fact.
My take is that the share price will continue to rise (it’s slightly red today as some jittery shareholders take profit after yesterday’s rise).
Yet, it’s not smooth sailing. There’s still 1 hump ahead, and I think that relates to Wirecard’s acquisition activities there. I don’t think that has as much coverage as the supposed few million euro restatement, which is curious, cos if anything, that’s potentially a bigger worry to me than this few million euros worth.
In any case, I’ve been keeping busy by looking for the next idea to put some serious capital to work.
As I’ve said before, it usually takes several weeks, or even months, of due diligence, before I start allocating capital, for large, core positions.
That means that in any given year, I’d probably have only… perhaps, 3-4 core, big ideas and I only need to get these right and it’d be a massively good year.
My next idea though, really comes from a reader of SG TTI. No credits yet, as I haven’t asked the said reader, and also, cos I’m still accumulating. It’s going to be a looooong position though, and it’d take time.
It’s definitely not your typical “value” play here, or rather, I think it is, but the numbers would certainly scare away most “value investors”.
Here’s a teaser.
Would you buy a company that reports these numbers?!
Losing money year after year, and more and more too!
Balance sheet is even more horrendous!
Negative equity! My god.
Don’t even get me started on the cashflows. It’s negative operating CFs and negative FCF and negative any parameter you can think of!
Everybody’s running far away from this! Even Hyflux in it’s current form, looks better! LOL.
But TTI’s accumulating gradually, and I’d continue to do so over the next couple of months until it reaches a sizable position, as long as the investing thesis doesn’t change.
Yes, it is atypical for sure.
But just like Wirecard and GDS holdings (11% Returns In A Single Day. Thank You Blue Orca Capital!) and Shinsho Corporation (Divestment Of Shinsho Corporation & Kobe Steel – TTI’s Post-Mortem), the greatest rewards lie in the most atypical situations.