Category: SG Stocks And Shares

Where does STI go from here?

  Preference: long positions above 3225.00 with targets at 3345.00 & 3430.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 3225.00 look for further downside with 3175.00 & 3110.00 as targets. Comment: even though a continu…

SGstocksandshares (SGSAS) 2018-07-22 12:39:00

HC surgical (S$0.67; mkt cap: S$100m)

 FY18 PE: 22.4x, Dividend yield: 3.1%, Net cash, Free cashflow yield: 5.8%

Our View
While notably HC Surgical is not cheap at 22x FY18 PE, when compared to its peers like Singapore Medical Group or Singapore O&G who are trading at 15-19x FY18F PE. However, we thought it is worth keeping it in our watchlist given the recent surge in FY18 profit which was driven by both organic and inorganic growth. The group has done a series of acquisitions in the last 2 years, which showcased its ambitions for expansion, and potential for further earnings growth going forward.

Why we think it looks potentially interesting

The (opp of) law of large numbers. HC surgical caught our eye due the surge in revenue and profit for FY18. Its adjusted net profit to owners surged 60% yoy on both organic and inorganic growth. Despite the strong growth, its net profit is still relatively small (when compared to its SG listed peers with profit of S$8.5-32m) at S$4.47m. If we believe in the law of large numbers (which states that small cap companies have more room to grow (at a faster rate) than larger market cap), then it is worth digging abit further into HC Surgical’s growth plans to see if that growth is sustainable, and if it can grow into at least the size of its closest competitor whose profits are 90% larger than them now.

Since its IPO in just 2 years, HC Surgical has done a series of (small) acquisitions,
–  The price tag are typically less than S$5m each (The largest one seems to be Medinexdone at    S$4.3m), which we think showcase the company’s prudent investment approach (it is likely more easy to integrate smaller companies than larger ones, even if it fails, the financial impact on the group will not be as huge). Collectively, these (along with organic growth) have helped HC grow their profit by more than 60% from FY16 (S$2.7m) to FY18’s (S$4.5m). These acquisitions include Specialists, GPs and medical support services (Medinex).
–  While this is a bit of a crude way of calculating, if we roughly add up all the announced acquisitions/investment consideration (about S$12.2m) and divide it by the increase in profit from FY16-FY18 of about S$1.8m, the PE from the acquisitions are about 7x- which is very value accretive (given despite the de-rating in the medical sector, medical listed peers are still trading at least 15x PE)

Growth plans looks likely to continue, given HC Surgical continue to add another specialist in May 18 and formed a joint venture with a GP group, Island Family In Feb 18.


FY18 results: Revenue +69%; Adjusted net profit to owners +60% yoy to S$4.47m; Total Dividend: S$0.021

The surge in revenue and profitability was due to both organic and inorganic growth (full 12 months consolidation of specialists, GP and medical support services acquired during FY17 and FY18)

Free cash flow generation is also strong (most likely due to nature of business), with S$5.8m of free cash flow generated for the year (Operating cashflow – Acquisition of PPE) translating to a free cashflow yield of 5.8%.

The strong free cashflow underpins the ability of HC Surgical to return value to shareholders, where it has declared a total dividend of S$0.021 for FY18 (70% payout ratio) translating to a dividend yield of 3.1%.

Net cash balance sheet 

SGstocksandshares (SGSAS) 2018-07-11 13:10:00

Singapore Medical Group (SMG)

Our View

Markets have been volatile amidst the rising political tension and the official start of a trade war between China and US. Singapore being an export driven country is likely to affected as well, with the STI currently down about 4.6% YTD, and 11% from its 52 week high. Nonetheless, it serves well for an investor with a long term investment horizon to remain focus and pick up quality stocks when the opportunity arises.

We like SMG as

·         its earnings are more domestic focus and less likely affected in a trade war (although there is likely still indirect impact, should a trade war result in a recession and possibly less demand for private healthcare vs public).

·         However, over the long term, there is still a rising demand for quality healthcare in the region amidst an aging population.

·         Share price has taken a beating of more than 40% from its highs, amidst market jitteries, medical sector currently not in play etc- such that the stock is now one of the cheapest among its local healthcare peers, and at just 14.3x FY19F PE (which is at a significant discount to historical medical sector range of about 18-28x PE.

·          It is very clear that management thinks there is value in the company and is keen to enhance shareholder return as evident from their subscription to the latest rights issue (11% premium to current share price) and exploring avenues such as share buybacks and dividends.

·         Company is still growing as shown in its latest 1Q18 results which saw new profit surged 139% yoy (FY18F EPS forecasted to grow 38% yoy, followed by 8-9% growth p.a. over next 2 years).

Nonetheless share price action continues to remain weak despite its attractive valuations. Will recommend this for long term investors with at least a 3-5 years horizon, and accumulate using a dollar cost averaging strategy (given the current weak share price action)

SMG is a private healthcare provider based in Singapore, with 35 clinics. It is led by a group of reputable management (who successfully turned the company around from a loss in FY13 to a profit of S$8.5m in FY17) armed with an ambition for regional expansion- SMG has invested in JVs in overseas markets such as Australia, Jakarta and Vietnam.

Key business:

  1.   Healthcare: Oncology, Obstretrics & Gynaecology (O&G), Paediatrics
  2. Diagnostics & Aesthetics

Investment merits

An aging population– bodes well for rising healthcare needs in the region.

The cheapest among its local healthcare peers. Trading at 15.4x FY18F PE, 14.3x FY19F PE (EPS forecasted to grow at 8-9% p.a. for next 2 years) according to Bloomberg. This vs its local healthcare peers who are trading at 15.5x-32.3x FY19F PE. It is trading at an 8% discount to its closest competitor Singapore O&G and at the widest discount to Raffles Medical since 2016 at 14.8x blended forward 12M PE vs Raffles Medical’s 29.1x (according to Bloomberg).

Major shareholders and management show confidence in the group by taking up the recent rights issue at S$0.48/share (11% premium to current share price). While share price has went below the recent share price placement, management and Cha healthcare has went ahead to subscribe to their share of the rights, showcasing their confidence in the group’s future and expansion plans. 

SMG continues to deliver. 1Q18 Revenue (+37% yoy), Gross Profit (+47% yoy), NPAT (+139% yoy) on the back of increased revenue from both Health business segment and Diagnostics & Aesthetics business segment. Overseas operations are also starting to see improvement, as share of loss of JV and associates decreased 75% to a net loss of S$12k for 1Q18 on improvement in PT Ciputra SMG and share of profits from CHA SMG Australia Pte Ltd, offset by losses in SMG International Vietnam (where investment was made only in Jan 17, and is still in ramping up phase)

Growth set to continue- SMG opened its new 5,500 sqft center at Novena Medical center in Feb 18, and expected to add an additional radiologist and visiting consultant radiologist in cardiac and paediatrics to business in 3Q18. In Apr 18, completed acquisition of majority stake in Pheniks, operator of aesthetics and plastic surgery clinic, SW1, which will help contribute to profit and hopefully drive cross selling opportunities for SMG’s women’s health segment.
  • ·   In its latest corporate business update, the group stressed its strategy to continue its “buy and grow” strategy – which is buying  profitable business and growing it organically (as with its Astra acquisition where SMG has opened 2 new O&G clinics since) 
  • Strong growth potential overseas. For Eg. Vietnam’s healthcare market is an underserved market with number of physicians to population ratio at 0.8 per 1,000 below the OECD average of 3.3 per 1,000. SMG having identified the opportunity early, has grown its Vietnam presence to over 60 multidiscipline specialists and a team of 6 paediatricians

Improving shareholder return. While there are no firm plans announced, Management has highlighted that it is exploring avenues to enhance shareholder return including setting a formal dividend policy and share buybacks.

Do you know STI 3250 is a TURNING point?

As mentioned in my previous emails, the target 3250 was supported yesterday as predicted.

If it does not hold up at this level of 3250 by end of the day, there is a chance to move and test 3200 mark.

If it does hold up, then it should be moving within the row of 3300 and 3250 as marked on the chart.

Fundamentally looking ahead, President Donald Trump said the tariffs, which will start on 6 July, are intended to reduce China’s dominance in industries. That gives us about 1 week’s time to monitor and observe any upcoming developments of the intended tariffs. And not to mention, equity markets all over the world are facing a sell off; case in point, Dow Jones down 400 points last night.

I am forwarding some details as shared by my friends and clients, reposting below the Year lows and highs, as well as institutional buys and sells. Hope that it will be useful as a reference.

Group effort is always more efficient than individual effort, feel free to share with me too.

STI to CRASH or BULL again?

Taken from Straits Times index fell 0.38% or 12.6pts to 3287.4 (da…

STI 3300 mark to be broken!

Wed, June 20, 2018 This morning STI opened below the 3300 mark from yesterday. This results in a gap between yesterday’s and today’s session. Also as guessed in my previous email, it was hovering over the range of 3320 forming a temp base before m…

US China Trade War on STI 3250

Tuesday, June 19, 2018 The dollar fell against the yen in early Asian trade on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of more tariffs on China raised worries about an escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies. As …

SGstocksandshares (SGSAS) 2018-06-06 10:53:00

AAC Tech (2018 HK)- reaching first TP

AAC Tech is having a good day today up 7% currently along with its peer, Sunny Optical, which is also up about 5%

No particular news, could be riding on the back of recent positive market actions in US, as well as recent Apple worldwide developer’s conference highlighting updates to its AR platform, and Credit Suisse’s report about smartphone demand to have bottomed out

Nonetheless after the surge, AAC is near our first TP of $131.2.
Investors may look to take some profit off, or leave a trailing stop. Our Next TP is $139.2- (17.4x FY19F PE, 12.7x EV/EBITDA) – 5 year +1SD.

Current consensus is $146.03