Category: SG Stocks And Shares

Stocks to watch

currently looking at:

  • China sunsine (upcoming good results)
  • Lifebrandz (possible RTO?)
  • Sembcorp Marine
  • ShengSiong (has been quite stable after XD)

my 2 cents.

The U.S. Treasury Department unveiled a sweeping plan on Monday to upend the country’s financial regulatory framework, which, if successful, would grant many items on Wall Street’s wishlist.

The nearly 150-page report that suggested more than 100 changes, most of which would be made through regulators rather than Congress. Republican President Donald Trump has gradually been nominating heads of financial agencies like the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Securities and Exchange Commission to carry out his agenda.

The changes suggested include easing up on restrictions big banks now face in their trading operations, lightening the annual stress tests they must undergo, and reducing the powers of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which has been aggressively pursuing bad behavior by financial institutions.

The industry has long sought such changes, which would benefit banks like:

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co (N:JPM),
  • Bank of America Corp (N:BAC), 
  • Citigroup Inc (N:C), 
  • Wells Fargo & Co (N:WFC), 
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (N:GS) and 
  • Morgan Stanley (N:MS).

The plan would also expand the authority of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which is chaired by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. It would also change the way global capital standards are implemented at home to give U.S. banks a leg up against foreign rivals. Smaller banks also would get some relief. Lenders with $50 billion or less in assets would have to jump through fewer regulatory hoops than rivals with multi-trillion-dollar balance sheets.

Trade groups for large and small banks applauded the administration’s proposals on Monday evening, though some said they wished there were more specifics on tricky questions, such as what level regulators should set for banks’ assets before subjecting them to stricter regulations.

“This is the first time in a while where there’s been an official undertaking where our concerns resonated with the folks in the driver’s seat,” said Rich Foster, senior counsel for regulatory and legal affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable, a trade group.

However, reform advocates and Democratic lawmakers were quick to criticize the plan as a handout to Wall Street and a dangerous one for U.S. consumers who lost homes and jobs during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

“The Treasury proposal advances ideas that have been pushed by industry lobbyists since Dodd-Frank was passed,” said Lisa Donner, executive director of Americans for Financial Reform. “We need more effective regulation and enforcement, not rollbacks driven by Wall Street and predatory lenders.”

Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown noted that the Treasury Department consulted with industry groups more than consumer groups, by a ratio of 17-to-1 while developing the report.

In a statement, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the regulatory overhaul is needed to grow the economy, give consumers more choices and ensure U.S. taxpayers would not have to bail out big banks again. While the Trump administration has said it wants to protect consumers, existing rules limit their access to loans and investment products they want.

If the Trump administration succeeds in making changes through regulatory agencies, it can avoid a lengthy and perhaps futile battle among lawmakers.

Although the White House and Congress are led by Republicans, Democrats in the Senate can block legislation and are unlikely to support any overhaul that eases rules on big banks. Many changes proposed by the Treasury Department would undo rules put in place by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a landmark set of post-crisis laws signed by Obama, who is Trump’s predecessor.

Dodd-Frank required banks to hold more capital and liquidity, implemented annual stress tests and put restrictions around the types of trading and investments they could make. It also set up the CFPB and put other consumer protections in place.

News for today 13/6/2017:
– Oil rises on signs of US inventory declines, lower Saudi exports

– Fed rate hike likely despite sluggish US data

– US stocks drop as tech shares fall again

– Tech stock selloff spreads to Asia, Europe as pound swings

– Retail sales rise for 2nd month, up 2.6%

– Banks take top spots in brand ranking

– PropNex, Dennis Wee Group merge to form largest agency here

– Hotels go all out to woo millennial travellers

– Job prospects diminish across sectors: Survey

Stocks to watch today 13/6/2017:
Cityneon last close $1, 52wk high/low $1.21/$0.77 – Opening of Marvel’s Avengers S.T.A.T.I.O.N. exhibition in Taipei, Taiwan

Hongkong Land last close US$7.76, 52wk high/low US$7.89/US$5.79 – IOI and Hongkong Land team up to develop prime site

IPS Securex last close $0.09, 52wk high/low $0.205/$0.08 – Company wins S$10.4m security maintenance contract

Kim Heng last close $0.081, 52wk high/low $0.09/$0.06 – Company picks up 3 Swiber vessels for ‘bargain US$9.6m’ as it looks to industry turnaround

Noble last close $0.295, 52wk high/low $2.80/$0.285 – Embattled Noble receives interest for oil business: FT

SingPost last close $1.28, 52wk high/low $1.65/$1.23 – Company to arm postmen with smartphones, apps

Singapore Medical Group last close $0.665, 52wk high/low $0.70/$0.138 – Company acquires pediatric clinics for $25.3m

Singapore Stocks to Watch

* GIC said to pledge $100m to ex-employee’s hedge fund firm
Noble (NOBL SP): Borrowing base facility indicated near 90c in secondary; said to have received approaches for oil businesses, FT reports
SGX (SGX SP): Starts net total return futures for Asia emerging markets
Singapore Airlines (SIA SP): Plans to boost Paris services to 10 times a week

Stocks to watch

Stocks to watch:
*Ascott Residence Trust: Acquiring a hotel in New York, its third US hospitality asset, at market value of US$106m ($148.4m). The 224-room DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel New York – Times Square South will enhance ART’s pro forma FY16 DPU by 0.8%. NAV/unit has fallen 6.8% to $1.24 following the recent rights issue.

*SGX: Inked MOI with IMDA to create a pathway for fast growing IMDA-accredited companies to leverage capital markets in Singapore more efficiently for expansion. Through this tie-up, both parties aim to lower the access barriers for technology companies into the capital markets, catalyse more high-tech IPOs and increase Singapore’s attractiveness as a venue for capital raising.

*Ascendas REIT: Divested vacant light industrial building, 10 Woodlands Link, for $19.3m. Post-disposal, pro forma FY3/17 DPU is expected to slip marginally by 0.01¢ to 15.733¢, while aggregate leverage will be reduced from 33.8% to 33.7%.

*Centurion: Launched an A$30m asset enhancement for RMIT Village to boost capacity by 35% to 616 beds. Separately, it broke ground on its second student hostel in Australia with 280 beds in Adelaide. The two initiatives will almost double its Australian student accommodation portfolio to 900 beds. MKE last had a Hold with TP of $0.41.

*Tat Hong: 4QFY17 net loss narrowed to $29.2m from $39.8m a year ago, bringing FY17 loss to $38m (FY16: $39.3m). But quarter revenue still fell 13% to $110.2m, undermined by weaker crane rental (-32%) and tower crane (-11%) turnover due to lower utilization rates in Australia and Singapore on completion of projects as well as closure of specialized transport business in Australia from Apr ’16 . Gross margin compressed 2ppt to 24.3% owing to downward pressure on rental rates. NAV/share at $0.78.

*Sing Myanmar: FY17 net loss widened to US$7.1m from US$0.3m, weighed by loss from discontinued telecom towers business and absence of disposal gains. Otherwise, underlying loss would have narrowed to $4.3m (FY16: $6.8m), on the back of a 211.8% spike in revenue to US$23.3m, stemming from the commencement of Duty Free luxury and lifestyle retail business at Yangon Int’l Airport. While gross margin expanded to 20.7% (+4.9ppts), higher distribution (+22.3%) and administrative costs (+11.2%) led to an operating loss. Operations at Junction City has commenced since Apr ’17. NAV/share at US$0.0954.

*Swing Media: FY17 net profit grew 6.9% to HK$74.3m on better operating margin of 7.6% (+1.1ppts). Revenue rose 2.2% to HK$1.14b as sales of DVD-Rs (+2.4%), trading (+1%) and leasing income (+11.5%) improved. Bottom line was partly dragged by higher finance costs (+2.4%). NAV/share at HK$29.20..

*Mermaid Maritime: Clinched several subsea contracts across SE Asia and Middle East in 1Q17, with contract value totalling US$26m.

*Rex Int’l: 88.9% owned Masirah Oil completed the drilling of an exploratory well in Oman (Karamah#1), which yielded positive results. The next phase will be to plan for possible early production from the specific block.

*Jasper Investments: Will be removed from the SGX Watch-List with effect from 31 Mar 2017. However, the group remains on the watch-list based on the minimum trading price criteria.

*Chasen: Secured two relocation projects for FY18 amounting to Rmb90m, with works scheduled between Jun 2017 and Mar 2018.

*Telechoice: Disclosed that its logistics agreement with StarHub will be expiring on 30 Jun, which could result in a single-digit percentage drop on FY17 earnings.

*Lafe Corp: Granted NHT Management an option to buy its freehold office building at 57 Cantonment Road for $7.03m. The proposed sale of the 292sqm commercial property is expected to result in a disposal loss of US$0.46m.

*BRC Asia: Disclosed that certain substantial shareholders have received an unsolicited approach for a potential offer, but discussions are in preliminary stage.

Stocks to Watch

*CapitaLand: Undertaking active capital recycling with the concurrent acquisition and divestment of two Shanghai office buildings. It is acquiring newly-completed Guozheng Center (80,701 sqm) in Yangpu District for Rmb2.64b (or Rmb32,713

*M1: According to Bloomberg, Warburg Pincus has dropped out of the bidding race but MyRepublic is reportedly seeking private equity backing to pursue the mobile carrier after failing to win Singapore’s fourth mobile operator license. Other contenders that have submitted first round offers include Shanxi Meijin Energy and China Broadband Capital. Substantial shareholders Axiata Group, Keppel T&T and SPH, which together hold a combined 60% of M1, has appointed Morgan Stanley to review their stakes.

*OCBC: Received proposals from several parties for its 20.47% effective stake in UEL. Bloomberg reported that the group has picked Perennial for final buyout talks, edging out other suitors, including KKR and Singhaiyi. Based on UEL’s current market cap, OCBC stands to reap gains of $69m and $307m for its direct and indirect holding (via 87% owned Great Eastern), respectively. UE’s property portfolio include Rochester Mall, UE BizHub City, as well as condominiums, hotels and serviced apartments. The counter trades at 0.89x P/B.

*HG Metal: Subject of an open letter by activist hedge fund
Quarz Capital Management calling on the group to distribute up to $10m of its hefty cash pile of $29m (65% of market cap) back to investors and to explore the possible sale of its 22.6% stake in listed steel mesh manufacturer BRC Asia, worth $35m. This could boost its boost its shareholder value by >40% by 2018.

*Citic Envirotech: Awarded Rmb54m Phase 2 expansion project withdesign capacity of 25,000 m3/day for a wastewater treatment plant in Henan, China. This will lift total capacity to 50,000 m3/day. Construction is expected to be completed within one year in a year. The project comes with a 25-year service concession and minimum 15,000/20,000/25,000 m3/day offtake from year 1/2/3 onwards, guaranteed by the government.

*Silverlake: Insurance processing arm launched a suite of analytic solutions, TrueSight Analytics, for insurers and has won its first customer in Indonesia and is looking to extend the product to its regional customer base of 120 insurers.*Miyoshi: Proposed 45m placement of new shares (10% of share capital) at 6.8¢ apiece. Net proceeds of $3m are intended for new investments (35%) and working capital (65%).

*Magnus Energy: Terminating its joint investment agreement with Yangtze Investment Partners and will receive a repayment of US$1.2m of principal sum and 20% profit guarantee. It intends to use the funds for working capital requirements and its current projects.

Upcoming IPOs: World Class Global Ltd and HRnetGroup Ltd

UOB Kay Hian is placement agent for two upcoming IPOs, if you’re interested, please kindly reply me by tomorrow 31/5/2017 5PM indicating your name, account #, which company and number of shares you’re keen to subscribe for:

1. World Class Global Ltd (Part of Aspial Group):

Company is a real estate company that undertakes property development and property investment in major cities in Australia and Malaysia. They are currently undertaking several property development projects, including residential and mixed use developments, and may in future expand our business to include property development in other sectors, including the industrial and hospitality sectors and may acquire new properties in the Specified Region. They may also expand our business to include the acquisition or development of property for investment purposes in the Specified Region, to earn rental or other income.  Notable projects in the pipeline include Australia 108, Melbourne – the tallest building in Melbourne and tallest residence in the Southern hemisphere.
– Offer details

Issue Type n        Initial Public Offering
listing n        Catalist
Offering Size n        136,000,000 shares, comprising:-
n        100,000,000 new shares
n        36,000,000 vendor shares
Offer Structure n        132,020,000 placement shares
n        3,980,000 public offer shares
Overallotment Option n        10,800,000 Shares
Indicative Price n        S$0.25 – S$0.28 per share
RNAV (Analyst Estimate) n        S$464m (Pre listing based on 7% cost of equity)
n        S$491m – S$495m (Posting listing)
  Discount to RNAV  n        53.4% discount at S$0.25
Gross Proceeds n        S$36.7m – S$41.1m (including overallotment)
Share Capital n        805,000,000 shares (Pre-Listing)
n        916,500,000 shares (Including overallotment)
Market capitalisation n        S$229.15m – S$256.62m (including overallotment)
Lodgement 16 May 2017
Book Closes 1 June 2017, 5 pm
Registration 6 June 2017
Listing Date 15 June 2017
End Placee Brokerage: 1.0% & applicable GST payable

– Preliminary offer documents here:

2. HRnetGroup Ltd

– Company is the largest Asia-based recruitment agency in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), as compared to other key players within the professional recruitment and flexible staffing industry with presence
in Asia Pacific, according to Frost & Sullivan. As at 31 December 2016, company operates in 10 Asian growth cities, namely, Singapore (where our headquarters are located), Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok,
Hong Kong, Taipei, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul.
– Brands include Recruit Express, SearchAsia Consulting, RecruitFirst, HRnet One, and PeopleSearch
– Offer details

ISSUER: HRnetGroup Limited (“HRnetGroup”)
TRANSACTION TYPE: Initial Public Offering (“IPO”)
LISTING: Singapore Stock Exchange (“SGX”)
OFFER PRICE RANGE: S$0.80 – S$0.90 per share
BASE OFFERING SIZE: ~194mm shares, 19.1% of enlarged share capital (pre-shoe)
OVER-ALLOTMENT: ~11mm shares (100% primary), ~1.1% of enlarged share capital
OFFERING STRUCTURE: 100% primary on base offering and over-allotment
TARGET DEAL SIZE: S$155mm – 174mm / US$112mm – 125mm (pre-shoe)
S$164mm – 184mm / US$118mm – 132mm  (post-shoe)
EST MARKET CAP: S$813mm – 910mm / US$585mm – 655mm (pre-shoe)
S$822mm – 920mm / US$591mm – 662mm (post-shoe)
PRO-FORMA SHARES O/S: 1,011mm – 1,016mm shares (pre-shoe)
OFFERING TRANCHE: – Cornerstone shares: ~104mm shares
– Institutional Shares (excluding Cornerstone): ~84mm shares
– Singapore Retail Shares: ~6mm shares
CORNERSTONE TRANCHE: ~S$89mm / ~US$64mm, ~54% of total offer size
7 Cornerstone investors: Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited, Affin Hwang Asset Management Berhad, Credit Suisse AG (on behalf of certain of their private banking clients), en-japan inc., FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited, Meiji Yasuda Asset Management Company Ltd, TechnoPro Holdings, Inc.
BOARD LOT: 100 shares
LOCK-UP: – 6 months from Listing Date for HRnetGroup, SIMCO (including certain of its direct and indirect shareholders) and Vanda 1(1)
– Certain of the employees to be issued the GLOW Initial Shares, the Opp 1 and Opp 2 Investment Shares, the Opp 1 Loyalty Shares and the Opp 2 Buy-in Shares are subject to lock-up restrictions in respect of certain of their Shareholdings as detailed in the prospectus. 88GLOW post-IPO shareholding: ~3.5% of enlarged share capital
USE OF PROCEEDS: Business expansion and acquisition
BROKERAGE: Up to 1.0% & applicable GST payable by all investors in the cornerstone and placement tranches

Exchange rate used: 1USD = 1.3905 SGD
* Notes: (1)     Vanda 1 is a Heliconia fund. Heliconia is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Temasek that provides growth capital to Singapore’s leading SMEs, to help them become globally competitive companies.
– Indicative IPO schedule

Expected Pricing: June 7
Public Offer Period: June 9 to June 14
Expected Listing: June 16

– Preliminary prospectus here:

HRnetGroup Limited book building exercise

Hi all,

We are currently collating orders for HRnetGroup Limited IPO (HRnet). This book building exercise is only for HNW / retail clients, not for institutional clients. Please note that we do not have protection for this IPO. 

Clients may or may not receive any allocations for their orders.

The Company preliminary prospectus web-link are attached at the bottom of this email for your information please.

Please reply in the following format:

1.  TR code:  

2.  Client code:  

3.  Client name:  

4.  Indicative demand  [ shares ] :  

5.   Offering price:                          S$0.80 to S$0.90 per share

Please note:

1)        Book building exercise is scheduled to close on the 6 June 2017 (Tues), at 12 pm.

2)        To avoid duplicate order, please email your order once only.

3)        IOI must be reflective of the clients’ true demand. No withdrawals or amendments to the IOIs will be permitted after the book is closed.

4)        1% brokerage plus GST is chargeable for allocable demand.

5)        Allocation result will be communicated via email after the prospectus is registered with MAS.


ISSUER: HRnetGroup Limited (“HRnetGroup”)
TRANSACTION TYPE: Initial Public Offering (“IPO”)
LISTING: Singapore Stock Exchange (“SGX”)
OFFER PRICE RANGE: S$0.80 – S$0.90 per share
BASE OFFERING SIZE: ~194mm shares, 19.1% of enlarged share capital (pre-shoe)
OVER-ALLOTMENT: ~11mm shares (100% primary), ~1.1% of enlarged share capital
OFFERING STRUCTURE: 100% primary on base offering and over-allotment
TARGET DEAL SIZE: S$155mm – 174mm / US$112mm – 125mm (pre-shoe)
S$164mm – 184mm / US$118mm – 132mm  (post-shoe)
EST MARKET CAP: S$813mm – 910mm / US$585mm – 655mm (pre-shoe)
S$822mm – 920mm / US$591mm – 662mm (post-shoe)
PRO-FORMA SHARES O/S: 1,011mm – 1,016mm shares (pre-shoe)
OFFERING TRANCHE: – Cornerstone shares: ~104mm shares
– Institutional Shares (excluding Cornerstone): ~84mm shares
– Singapore Retail Shares: ~6mm shares
CORNERSTONE TRANCHE: ~S$89mm / ~US$64mm, ~54% of total offer size
7 Cornerstone investors: Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited, Affin Hwang Asset Management Berhad, Credit Suisse AG (on behalf of certain of their private banking clients), en-japan inc., FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited, Meiji Yasuda Asset Management Company Ltd, TechnoPro Holdings, Inc.
BOARD LOT: 100 shares
LOCK-UP: – 6 months from Listing Date for HRnetGroup, SIMCO (including certain of its direct and indirect shareholders) and Vanda 1(1)
– Certain of the employees to be issued the GLOW Initial Shares, the Opp 1 and Opp 2 Investment Shares, the Opp 1 Loyalty Shares and the Opp 2 Buy-in Shares are subject to lock-up restrictions in respect of certain of their Shareholdings as detailed in the prospectus. 88GLOW post-IPO shareholding: ~3.5% of enlarged share capital
USE OF PROCEEDS:   Business expansion and acquisition
BROKERAGE: 1.0% & applicable GST payable by all investors in the cornerstone and placement tranches

Exchange rate used: 1USD = 1.3905 SGD
* Notes: (1)     Vanda 1 is a Heliconia fund. Heliconia is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Temasek that provides growth capital to Singapore’s leading SMEs, to help them become globally competitive companies.

Expected Pricing: June 7
Public Offer Period: June 9 to June 14
Expected Listing: June 16

Preliminary Prospectus Weblink

Stocks to Watch: ShengSiong, Parkson Retail, Sembcorp Marine

Crude oil plunged from a high of 51+ to a low of $48. OPEC confirmed on Thursday that both the cartel and non-OPEC members led by Russia have agreed to extend its output cut agreement for another nine months and expect to reach supply target by the end of 2017. It seems that market is not agreeing with this news, and focusing largely on the demand side instead.

Personally, I have sold my last batch of Sunningdale (small amount) and have taken profits along the way previously.

Personal list:

  1. Sembcorp Marine         possible privatisation, the dropped in oil prices also caused a drag on Sembcorp M prices too
  2. Serrano                         for trading only, no major news or developments within the company.
  3. Noble                       plagued with debts and cash flow issues, good for trading, not for the risk takers
  4. MM2                         acquired Golden Village cinemas, vertical integration. Possible more upside to come in months/years
  5. Parkson Retail           changed CEO, need time for its stores to turnaround, Net asset value 0.200
  6. Banks                         prices still rise after ex-dividends. Personally i feel it may be about time to take some profits now. If it drops, then able buy in again.
  7. Lee Metal                   good for dividends, but need to be patient to get a good price. Though lower the better, below 0.300 is a good price to get in.
  8. Comfort Delgro          facing competitions as Grab and Uber burning cash to capture market share. Yet, good news: GBP seems to be in recovery
  9. Ascott                        Good entry price would be below $1.100. Dividends about 6-7%
  10. ShengSiong               after XD, price stable around 0.970 to 0.980. Though price is high, for investing friends, i think it’s relatively ok. Dividends abt 3%

Stocks to watch:
*GLP: Updated that discussions on the non-binding proposals it received during its strategic review are ongoing and due diligence process is still in progress

*Oxley/KSH/Lian Beng: A consortium by Oxley (35%), KSH (35%), Lian Beng (20%) and Apricot Capital (10%) has purchased a former HUDC estate, Rio Casa, in a collective deal for $575m. The 286-unit residential property sits on a site area of 36,811 sqm, with gross plot ratio of 2.8. Inclusive of $208m differential premium payable for lease top-up and redevelopment, the estimated land cost works out to $706 psf ppr.

*Oxley: Proposed to sell its 19.85% interest in MGlory to Sociedade De Investimento E Desenvolvimento Glory for Rmb22m.*Accordia Golf Trust: 4QFY17 DPU fell to 1.48¢ (-24.5%), bringing FY17 payout to 6.04¢ (-8.9%), meeting expectations. Quarterly revenue declined 5.1% to ¥9.91b due to a 0.2% dip in visitorship to its gold courses as well as the absence of a one-off refund recorded in 4QFY16. Consequently, operating loss deepened to ¥2.32b (4QFY16: ¥622m). Course utilisation rate inched up 1ppt to 70.2%, while loan-to-value ratio held steady at 28.9%. NAV/share at $0.91.

*Pan Hong: FY17 net profit jumped 25.3% to Rmb100.9m, while revenue surged 131.1% to Rmb1.4b, buoyed by the handover of property units at Nanchang Sino harbour Kaixuan City Zone 3, Pan Hong Run Yuna Phase 1 and Huzhou Hua Cui Ting Yuan Phase 2. Gross margin jumped 5.6ppt to 18.9% from improved sales mix. NAV/share at Rmb4.33

*Jason Marine: Broke even in FY17 with net profit of $0.3m (FY16: $6m loss). Revenue fell 10.8% to $33.2m, with weakness across all business segments. But gross margin widened 11ppt to 30.1% due to cost and operational efficiency. Bottom line was further boosted by a overall drop in operating expenses. NAV/share at 21.3¢

*Hiap Tong: FY17 net profit more than doubled to $4.8m mainly due to $3.8m in fair value gain on investment properties. Revenue rose 3.7% to $41.6m, mainly on the strength of its leasing business (+3.8%). Gross margin compressed to 19.2% (-5ppts) on higher wages. Bottomline was shored up by lower finance (-33.8%) and tax (-30.2%) expenses. NAV/share at $0.2696.

*BBR: Acquiring Goh & Goh Building at Upper Bukit Timah Road in $101.5m en-bloc deal, following the exercise of a call option. The 4-storey freehold property has a plot ratio of 3 and comprises seven apartments and seven shops, which can be redeveloped into 100 residential units with ground floor retail space, subject to a development charge.

*Rickmers Maritime: Received US$24.7m from the sale of 14 vessels to Navios Partners as part of its US$59m sale, which also saw Navios assume US$34.3m of secured loan obligations.

*ISDN: Entered into strategic cooperation framework with HK-listed Comtec Solar Systems to develop and operate solar power generation station projects, as well as collaborate on power storage and electric bar charging businesses. Group will also offer Comtec right of first refusal for sale of roof distributed photovoltaic power stations that it might develop in the future.

*DISA: No longer proceeding with the 50-into-1 share consolidation, citing the increase in company’s share price over the past few months (ytd return: +117%). However, as shareholder approval has been sought for the consolidation, management will have to seek approval to disregard the exercise.

Singapore Stocks to Watch

* Noble Group (NOBL SP): Muddy Waters asks when “last wheel” may fall
Oxley (OHL SP): Leads group buying former housing estate for S$575m
Rickmers Maritime (RMT SP): Received $24.7m from sales of 5 vessels

Malaysia Stocks to Watch

* AirAsia (AIRA MK): 1Q net 615.8m rgt vs 877.8m rgt y/y

Stocks to watch

Stocks to watch:
*Economy: Singapore final 1Q17 GDP growth was revised to 2.7% from earlier flash estimate of 2.5%. While MTI kept its 2017 growth forecast at 1-3%, it foresees the economy will expand more than 2% this year as exports continue to strengthen. 1Q17 NODX surged 15.2%, on the back of a recovery in electronic shipments. On that front, IE Singapore raised its growth estimate for exports from 4% to 6%.

*Keppel Corp: Won $103m contract to build two LNG carrier vessels for Stolt-Nielsen Gas, with completion in 2Q/3Q19. The deal comes with options for three additional vessels, with 6/12/18 months expiry from the contract date. Latest order brings the total contracts secured this year to just $279m, well off peak of $10b in 2011 and $0.5b in 2016.

*SIA Engineering: Setting up wholly-owned subsidiary in Japan to provide line maintenance services at airports in Japan. It will commence operations at Kansai Int’l Airport and subsequently expand to other Japanese airports. This will brings SIE’s maintenance network to 37 airports across eight markets.

*SATS: Launched a technology innovation centre, TechnIC@SATS, which will roll out technological solutions to boost productivity. The centre will be supported and co-funded by the CIAS and the EDB to the tune of $110m.

*Valuetronics: FY17 net profit jumped 27.9% to HK$154.1m, beating estimates, as it was partially helped by a positive HK$5.1m FX swing. Revenue climbed 16.5% to HK$2.27b, with improvement in industrial & commercial electronics (+14.1%), as well as consumer electronics (+19.7%) segments. Gross margin was relatively stable at 15% (FY16: 15.2%). Cash pile ballooned to HK$752.9m (FY16: HK$689.3m), accounting for 40% of market cap. Maintained final and special DPS of HK$0.20. Trading at 12x FY17 trailing P/E, and 7.1x ex-cash P/E.

*Cityneon: Officially opened its maiden Avengers S.T.A.T.I.O.N travelling exhibition in Beijing, China. After Beijing, the set will move on to other cities within China over the next two years. *Secura: Entered two-year strategic alliance with ComfortDelGro to offer cyber security related consultancy, products and services to the latter’s customers.

*Vallianz: Converting net payables to Swiber of US$36.6m, as well as Rawabi’s shareholder advances of US$102.1m into equity in its own capital, via the 1-for-1 proposed rights cum warrants issue first announced in Sep ’16.

*Sinwa: Won supply agreements of A$8m for the Prelude FLNG Project in Western Australia. Scope of services include the supply of provisions, stores and logistics to vessels involved in the project.

Singapore Stocks to Watch

* Keppel (KEP SP): Secures contract to build LNG carriers worth more than $100m
Noble Group (NOBL SP): Co-CEOs see “incredibly difficult environment;” hires Morgan Stanley, Moelis in battle for survival

Malaysia Stocks to Watch

* XL Axiata (AXIATA MK): Raised to buy from neutral at Nomura

Keppel Corporation (KEP SP)        HOLD
Price/Tgt: S$6.59 / S$6.55        Mkt Cap: US$8,623.9m         52-wk avg daily value: US$20.2m         1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$7.23/S$5.13

Order Momentum continues with another S$103m in LNG Carriers
Analyst(s): Foo Zhiwei / Andrew Chow, CFA        Tel: (65) 6590 6626 / 6633

What’s New?
Keppel secures S$100m in new orders for two LNG carrier vessels. Contract value is S$103m for two LNG carriers (S$51.5m each) for Stolt-Nielsen Gas BV, a subsidiary of Stolt-Nielsen Ltd. Delivery is expected to be in 2Q19 and 3Q19 respectively.
Option for three more similar units. As part of the order, Keppel Singmarine has also secured options to build another three similar units for Stolt-Nielsen Gas. Timeframes for exercise of the options are 6, 12, and 18 months form the effective date of the contract.

Our Take
– Contract wins still within expectations. Year to data contract wins now stand at S$279m and make up 19% of our full-year assumption of S$1.5b.
Positive order momentum, but small contract win sizes insufficient to replenish declining orderbook. While the string of continued order wins is encouraging, it is insufficient to arrest the decline of Keppel’s net orderbook (S$3.5b as of 1Q17). We look forward to 2H17 where we believe more sizeable contracts are likely to be awarded, and are also more meaningful to Keppel’s orderbook (and bottom line). Should 2017, however, prove a repeat of 2016’s low contract win of S$0.5b, current estimates for Keppel’s O&M business will likely have to be revised down. Hopefully, given the continued stability in oil prices from OPEC’s affirmation to extend their supply cut by another 9 months, more large-scale projects will be sanctioned, leading to greater tendering opportunities.

Valuation/ Recommendation
Maintain HOLD, target price of S$6.55. Our target price still remains unchanged on this development. It is based on SOTP which prices the O&M unit at 1.0x P/B, and Property at 0.8x historical P/B. Despite the improving environment, the contracting environment remains challenging and has not seen a flurry of large sized production order awards that Keppel O&M needs to replace its diminishing orderbook. Even if Keppel meets out S$1.5b contract win assumption, profitability will be lower and unlike levels seen in the previous boom cycle. Property remains the core earnings driver, with O&M likely to fluctuate between marginal profitability or breakeven. Continue maintaining HOLD.

NOBLE: Unexpected losses, sustained cash

Noble Group Ltd

Unexpected losses, sustained cash burn with delayed turnaround, inadequate guidance leading to crisis of confidence


Noble reported an unexpected loss in 1Q17 and liquidity concerns increased materially from sustained net working capital outflows bringing usable cash levels to ~US$500 million pro-forma of loan repayment. Unsecured debt maturities are only in March-May 2018 and banks with unsecured exposure should try to support company (but move to secured debt structure) to wriggle out of current stress but liquidity risk could mount earlier if negative working capital sustains at current pace. It doesn’t help market confidence either that weak numbers and tight liquidity came to the fore just two months after doing a large bond. 

With much uncertainty and lack of adequate response related to questions on liquidity, cash burn reversal or profitability, it is tough to take a directional view on the bonds and rather look to trade them as a pair till clarity arises. We also highlight the trade could be high risk as the situation is still fluid but we highlight the upside vs. downside potential in each scenario. 

We believe it is a very close call for either scenario to play out (see page 3) but with management guidance that business is not expected to turnaround until 2018/19 at least, we think “kicking the can down the road option” may not help improve the tight funding situation as the debt on cap structure would remain unchanged. 

We place slightly higher probability to a more comprehensive solution that the new management may prefer to improve the current tight situation which we think could be played by switching out of ‘18s into ‘22s (low dollar price senior debt) taking a view that all bonds would be treated equally post securing bank loans. Investor could also sell the perps and buy the ‘22s as we think the upside vs. downside on ‘22s is much better. Separately, with current capital structure, our base case in recovery scenario in liquidation is around 35-50 cents, the variable being assumptions on value of FV contracts.

  • Noble’s results were weak on account of profitability, negative cash flows and higher debt. The company reported slightly higher revenues (US$12.6 billion from higher ASPs even as volumes continued to fall sharply by 16-22%yoy. Gross margins were however negligible and coupled with issues in the coal markets dislocations, EBITDA loss stood at US$66 million for the quarter.
  • Specifically, Noble guided the correlation between Newcastle Energy Coal Price indices vs. China’s domestic coal prices have progressively eroded and hence led to losses from the resulting hedges. While Noble could revert to the agency model of moving commodities from place A to B for a fee, it adds uncertainty on value of the existing contracts or how profitable the new model would be given the highly competitive nature of that business.
  • The results were not terribly weak by itself (loss of US$130 million) to suggest the steep 40-45pts fall in bond prices, we believe there are a few other updates that shook confidence – a) viability of profitability as expectations of 2017 turnaround delayed to 2018/19, b) high cash burn leading to tighter liquidity than expected post May loan repayment, c) losses happening just two months after new bond for issues prior to/around bond issuance, d) low visibility on turnaround implying cash burn-out in two quarters at this run rate.
  • Given complete black-box nature of operations, inadequate disclosures of contracts even in broad / competition-safe terms, market confidence in the company has gone extremely low, in our view. A high churn rate in senior management does not help confidence either. While the new Chairman, Mr. Paul Brough, is not new to the company, his prior experience as restructuring officer for other Asian companies makes market (and us) connect some dots.
  • Operating cash flows were negative US$376 million due to FFO loss and US$264 million in negative working capital from payables decline, inventory increase, FV losses and increase in margin with brokers which we think will increase further based on current situation. Noble also invested US$90 million in Harbour Energy to maintain 75% stake, increasing net debt by US$423 million, effectively funded by the recently issued bond.
  • No debt maturity in the near term but that does not mean liquidity issues cannot arise. Cash balance stood at US$1.5 billion vs. our US$2.0 billion expectation (difference being the cash burn) of which US$350 million was locked with brokers. With repayment of US$700 million loan as guided, pro-forma usable cash would decline to ~US$600 million. Coupled with guidance on turnaround only in 2018 (limited guidance how this translates to cash burn turnaround), US$1.1 billion NWC outflow seen in 2016 and similar run-rate seen in 1Q17, concerns of cash levels further declining are legitimate, we think.
  • That said, there are two buffers for liquidity. Including the two BBF it currently has, we think Noble has ~US$1.2 billion of liquidity (cash and unutilized secured lines), which it could theoretically use for profitable trades. While this structurally subordinates the bonds even more, it could give the company some room to wiggle out of the current stress and help primarily ‘18s.
  • Separately, there has been recent excitement about a potential strategic partner with Reuters quoting Sinochem as a candidate, though none of the two companies confirmed. However, as noted in our report on Feb 14, 2017, we are not too excited about this yet as even if this does materialize it remains to be seen if the investment is done at the opco level or holdco group level. Note that Sinochem is primarily an oil trading company and hence rationally speaking, Noble’s US oil liquids business could be a strategic attraction for Sinochem to enter the US markets which it otherwise would find it difficult. The other businesses (energy and metallurgical coal, metals etc.) are not a strategic fit to Sinochem. This also gels with COFCO’s purchase of Noble Agri at opco level.
  • We also tried to understand Noble’s ability to substitute more unsecured debt with secured debt but management didn’t give guidance even in any broad numbers. There are US$1.2 billion in unsecured loans due in May-2018, just after the 2018 bonds and in absence of capital market access and limited cash generation, we think ability to term out existing unsecured loans into secured could be tough. Theoretically, the company can liquidate some of its contracts but in recent past, it has not been willing or unable to do so.
  • Given the ongoing stress, we think Noble’s trading bandwidth could further tighten along with risk of trade payables declining. Thus we attempt to do recovery analysis on the company (Table 4) but highlight that this will be a rather difficult process as bulk of the assets are FV of contracts where there is negligible publicly available information. As shown in Figure 3and Figure 4, the company’s trends of lack of ability to generate cash while running down FV contracts and that an increasing proportion of FV contracts is long term vs. short term valued are also downside risks to our recovery analysis.

SIA Eng, Food Empire, Comfort Delgro and ShengSiong

Morning all,

Please watch for Comfort Delgro (to buy around 2.30 to 2.40 range), ShengSiong (price stable after XD) and property counter (CityDev)

Telecomm counters should be facing headwinds and price is expected to drift lower over the months due to rising costs and increasing competitions.

Avoid Noble, unless you are just wanting to trade.

 my 2 cents

– Oil prices up 2% after deal to extend supply cut

– Wall Street rises as oil price jump boosts energy shares

– Chinese economy loses steam due to debt-risk clampdown

– Thailand’s GDP expands 3.3% in Q1, fuelled by agriculture

– Traders shake off worries over global events

– New private home sales stay robust

Croesus last close $1, 52wk high/low $1.02/$0.783 – Croesus available DPU for Q3 up 15.2%

Golden Energy last close $0.425, 52wk high/low $0.71/$0.395 – Company sees Q1 revenue boosted by coal mining division

Golden Agri last close $0.375, 52wk high/low $0.45/$0.325 – Revenue up, but Golden-Agri’s Q1 profit falls by 60%

MM2 last close $0.53, 52wk high/low $0.55/$0.27 – mm2 ties up with Turner Asia Pacific to produce five films

Noble $0.59, 52wk high/low $2.80/$0.57 – Noble Group routed again as analysts look at worst-case outcomes; Noble Group saviour Brough is turnaround specialist

Olam last close $1.99, 52wk high/low $2.17/$1.59 – Earnings in food sector boost Olam’s Q1 results

Sinarmas Land last close $0.45, 52wk high/low $0.54/$0.415 – Boost for Sinarmas Land profit from Indonesian recovery

Starhill Global Reit last close $0.745, 52wk high/low $0.84/$0.725 – REIT divests 4th property in Tokyo

Yanlord last close $1.81, 52wk high/low $1.99/$1.09 – 1Q 2017 profit leaps 259.1% driven by home buyer demand in China

Valuemax last close $0.265, 52wk high/low $0.29/$0.22 – Company’s Q1 profit surges 41.1% to S$4.9m

Good morning,

  • SIA (SIA SP)’s Apr pax load factor rose 3.7ppt yoy on the back of a 4.5% rise in traffic, with strong loads on long haul routes.
  • While SIA indicated that Apr’s stronger demand was helped in part by a shift in Easter holidays from March to April, load factors have improved for 5 consecutive months. Apr’s load factor at 80.8% was also the highest April load factor in more than than 10 years.
  • Pax loads on long haul routes to Europe and  Americas rose by 8.7ppt, and 5.8ppt respectively, and this holds scope for higher front end loads and thus overall yields.
  • Cargo loads also rose 2.3ppt in Apr on the back of a 3% rise in cargo traffic. The improvement in long haul pax load factors and cargo load factors bodes well for FY18 profitability.

SIA will report results on 18 Apr 2017 and we expect core 4QFY17 net profit to rise 25% yoy. We will also seek management’s guidance on inbound traffic from Europe, the reasons behind the strong international load factors and their impact on yields. We place our HOLD recommendation and TP of S$10.40 under review, pending 4QFY17 results.

Link to announcement:

Good morning

We maintain SELL on SIA engineering (SIE SP) but raise our TP from S$3.30 to S$3.50.

  • 4QFY17’s 15% core earnings growth is not reflective of long term prospects. Instead, profits were aided by a 64% rise in associate profits due to unexpected checks on the P&W 4000 engine series on older aircraft which were made economical by low fuel prices.

  • However, the odds of this repeating are low given that fuel prices have since rebounded, and SIAEC affirmed this view by stating that the PW4000 maintenance was mature. We do not see 4Q’s stronger associate profits as a sign of a cyclical recovery but have followed SIAEC’s guidance of a potential uplift in Trent engine maintenance and raised our earnings estimates.

  • Market is pricing in a cyclical recovery but we believe it is premature to form such an opinion, given a) rising cost pressures and increasing competition from MROs will impact margins, b) major overhauls for the Trent 1000 and Trent XWB are still more than 5 years away and c) earnings growth for the next 2 years will be largely dependent on the successful growth of line maintenance ventures.

  • Valuations are rich with the stock trading at 26x FY18 PE, 26% above peers. This is despite core net profit rising by just 1.8% in FY17, and we expect earnings to be largely flat going into FY18-19 even after factoring in higher revenue growth.



Food Empire Holdings (FEH SP)

BUY | Price/Tgt: S$0.655/S$0.90 | Mkt Cap: S$349.3m

2QFY17: Stable Core Market Currencies Lead To Strong Results

Food Empire’s 1Q17 results came in above our expectations as net profit to equity holders rose 58.8% on the back of strong growth in sales for most key markets. As core market currencies stabilise, we expect Food Empire’s strong pricing power to translate into stable growth for the company. With the CEO buying back shares once again, investors should follow suit. Maintain BUY with a higher PE-based target price of S$0.90 (previously S$0.78).

WHAT’s New
·        Food Empire Holdings (FEH) reported 1Q17 results with net profit to shareholders coming in at US$6.3m vs US$4.0m for 1Q16. The increase in net profit was attributable to an increase in sales in Russia, Kazakhstan and the rest of the CIS nations. Russia accounted for about 48% of sales for 1Q17 with sales growing 23% yoy from US$24.3m in 1Q16 to US$29.9m in 1Q17 due to a stronger Russian ruble (RUB). 1Q17 Sales in Kazakhstan and the rest of the CIS nations grew 141.6% yoy due to a change in business model where FEH takes more control over sales by reducing the compensation given to distributors. Vietnam sales came in much weaker than we had expected with sales falling 18% yoy from US$8.6m in 1Q16 to US$7.0m in 1Q17 due to an overstocking situation in Vietnam in Jan 17. We believe that the situation has normalised in Feb/Mar 17. Stripping out the effects of forex and other one-off items, FEH’s 1Q17 profit to equity holders was about US$4.8m vs US$1m for 1Q16.
·        Margins on the rise. Gross margin trended upwards from 32.1% in 1Q16 to 39.9% in 1Q17 due to higher operating leverage together with a more favourable foreign exchange rate.


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DBS,ShengSiong , Raffles Medical, TT international and Parkson Retail


I am currently watching ShengSiong , Raffles Medical, TT international and Parkson Retail

Feel free to share any information.

Stocks to watch:
*Sembcorp Industries: 1Q17 net profit grew 11% to $119.1m on revenue of $2.14b (+13%) but stripping out the $46.8m gain on disposal of its 30% stake in Cosco Shipyard Group, the results would have missed. Utilities earnings shrank 27% to $55.3m, hurt by lower power tariffs for its thermal power plant in India, while marine earnings of $24.1m (-28%) was eroded by weaker rigbuilding contributions and costs associated with a floater project. In contrast, earnings from urban development business soared more than 30x to $37m from recognition of land sales in Nanjing. The group is undertaking a strategic review under a new CEO. NAV/share at $3.78.

*StarHub: 1Q17 net profit slumped 21.3% to $73.1m, meeting street estimates. Service revenue dipped 1% to $537m as declines in mobile (-0.6%), which was hit by lower ARPU, and Pay TV (-6.8%), which is suffering from a shrinking customer base, was partially offset by bright spots in in enterprise (+2.9%) and broadband (+0.5%). EBITDA margin narrowed 3.9ppts to 29.9%. Interim DPS was cut to 4¢ (1Q16: 5¢). Management maintained EBITDA margin of 26-28% and DPS guidance of $0.16 this year but would not commit to dividend sustainability beyond FY17. MKE reiterates Sell with TP of $2.36.

*BreadTalk: 1Q17 net profit surged 337.2% to $10.7m, as restructuring efforts pay off. While revenue fell 4.5% to $147.6m, dragged by bakery and food atrium sales, group EBITDA margin improved 4.9ppt to 17.8%, on the back of food atrium recovery across China, and strong performance in Singapore. NAV/share at $0.581.

*GLP: Acquired the remaining 50% interest in CLH Chongqing Logistics Property from JV partner for Rmb81.6m, valuing the entity at 1.36x P/B. Separately, it announced 275,000 sqm of new leases in China with two e-commerce leaders and two auto-parts companies.

*Heeton/Ryobi Kiso/KSH/Lian Beng: 60%/20%/10%/10% owned Luma Concept Hotel in London has commenced operations, after the consortium acquired a freehold building in 2015 for $31m, and and redeveloped it into a 89-room hotel, now managed by Heeton’s hospitality division.

*mm2 Asia: Entered binding MOU to acquire 19.68% of Cinema Pro for HK$4m. Cinema Pro provides all-in-one cinema management service in Hong Kong and China. The deal comes with an undisclosed profit and buyback guarantee from Cinema Pro and its majority shareholder Kbro Media.

*TTJ Holdings: Acquiring a 4,931-ha leasehold land in Mukim, Johor, Malaysia with tenure expiring in 23 Mar ’71, along with built-up factories, office, canteen, 22 overhead cranes and other heavy equipments from Air Products Specialised Process Equipment for RM38m. The property and equipment will be used for the group’s structural steel business.

*PACC Offshore: Disclosed that it is taking legal advice over an additional $24.5m in legal claims concerning a tussle over a property it failed to acquire. This brings claim amount to $30.5m, or 3.5% of its NTA as at 31 Dec ’16.

DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)         BUY

1Q17: NPL Formation And Specific Provisions Have Eased Sequentially
Analysts: Jonathan Koh, CFA                Tel: (65) 6590 6620

  • DBS achieved record core earnings of S$1,210m with strong growth in fee income of 15.9%  yoy  and  reduction  in  operating  expenses  of  0.6%  yoy.
  • NPL  formation  and specific  provisions  have  peaked  and  uncertainties  from  exposure  to  the  oil  &  gas sector  have  diminished.  Management guided total provisions of S$1.0b-1.1b for 2017, compared to S$1.4b for 2016.
  • DBS  has  a  track  record  of  consistency  in  execution  and delivering good results.
  • Maintain BUY. Target price: S$23.30.