Author: Got Money Got Honey

Preparing myself for the Japanese Discount

It’s strange, but I quite enjoy reading the stuff put out by the research guys by Stansberry Churchouse. Their recent article is about the precarious demographics that Japan is facing.

Perhaps the reason why I enjoy a lot of their articles is because we tend to approach the some topic, but I get to see someone else’s perspective.

こんにちは~!

I have talked about Japan’s structural demographic issues and their policies to address it before, in Sep 2015 and Dec 2014. Fast forward to 2018 and what do we have? BOJ still printing money to push up asset prices, and are now owning 80% of eligible ETFs.

Do I have to explain again why debt isn’t good for countries? Well, if you’re not planning to pay altogether, then you’ve got a great deal lol.

I’m certain that in my lifetime Japan will have an event that will really shake up their status quo. I’m not specifically trying to target Japan, I’m a financial asshole and I wish for hell on the global financial markets. It is just that for me, Japan is very clearly going down a very dangerous path for their country.

Personally, I like Japan a lot. You can see how much fun I had in Japan for a week for just $1.4k.

One of my fantasies is to have an apartment in one of the major cities downtown and spend 1-2 months a year escaping the SG heat and enjoying being somewhere else (I realize, CNY is an excellent time because the Japanese don’t celebrate CNY and the weather is still nice and cool). Well, the new Japanese rental laws changed, maybe I can rent out the apartment for half a year, then leave it empty and visit during the other half? Mmm, one of the things on my to-do list should think about how I can make this fantasy idea into a reality in the future. Japanese real estate are all freehold too, if I’m not wrong. I wouldn’t mind to pick up a 1 or 2 bedder Japanese apartment should Japan hit a wall economically.

Anyone with experience or info regarding direct purchasing of Japanese residential property?

じゃね!

Blinded by Yield

I think in Singapore, one of the most popular investing styles is income investing, mostly through dividend paying stocks and REITs, supplemented with retail bonds.To be honest, it is a strategy that I myself is quite fond of.Kyith wrote an excellent p…

PSA: Argentina will NEVER repay their century bond

Source: Wolfstreet

Wolf Ritcher wrote a nice piece on this. Will just copy my favourite bits here. (For reference, the bonds were sold at 90 cents on the dollar)

So don’t cry for Argentina’s investors that inexplicably bought $2.75 billion of 100-year bonds with a 7.125% coupon in June last year, at the peak of the cheap dollar-debt benightedness. 
Everyone knew that Argentina would default on these bonds before they’d mature, as it has defaulted repeatedly on its foreign-currency debts, and that it was only a question of when it would default and how many times. 
But the lure was just too juicy to not bite, in an environment where central-bank shenanigans (NIRP) were producing negative bond yields in Europe and Japan. And even in the US, ZIRP was still not fully banished. In the ensuing pandemic chase for yield, which had lasted years, investor brains were systematically starved of oxygen.
…. 

The thing is, Argentina hasn’t even defaulted on it yet, though 11 months after selling the bonds, it has already gone begging to the IMF for a bailout. And the IMF, in another bout of debt-benightedness, has agreed to lend it $50 billion. But those $50 billion won’t be used to pay off the century bond. They’ll be plowed into government spending and will disappear, leaving Argentina with an additional $50 billion in dollar-debt.

It’s not crazy for Argentina to have undertaken this piece of 100-year gaucho showmanship – in fact, you have to admire it for being able to pull it off. But it’s crazy for investors to have fallen for it. 
But now investors, including the hot money, are once again getting burned in the emerging markets, and the emerging markets are once again getting burned by their exodus. You’d think someone might have remembered that from the last few times it happened. But no. These old sins are repeated endlessly.

You couldn’t see this happening? It’s a freaking trainwreck in action slowed down frame by frame so you can watch it implode beautifully over this 100 years.

Don’t say I didn’t say. I said it twice, in May 18 and Jun 17. Before the IMF bailout, but after they raised interest rates to 40%, lol.

I ain’t even worried about sticking my neck out for this one.

Clear as day for me about what WILL happen. It’s not a question of “if”, it’s just a question of “when”. This is inevitable.

I just need to be right once over the next 99 years. I’ve got history on my side as well, since Argentina has already defaulted 8 times since 1827 and never got past 63 years without a default. Lol, easy bet.

Remember, your masters would like to remind you that sovereign bonds are the safest things ever.

Government.
Bonds.
Are.
The.
Safest.
Bonds.
Ever.
(lol)

Oh, since I’m on a related topic.

Government.
Fiat.
Currency.
Are.
The.
Safest.
Money.
Ever.
(lol)

What could possibly go wrong?

Be safe out there. If you won’t look after your own money, no one else will.

Quick Updates

Crypto markets are dropping and I’m busy wearing my helmet catching falling knives.

Lots of interesting progress are being made on the tech front. Lots of trash also raising obscene amounts of money.

I’m rather busy doing a few personal crypto projects.

Things ought to be quiet on my front for a bit while I busy myself making money.

I shall report back triumphantly about my endeavours as I’m done with each of them.

One week on and I’m already at 1% of my $50,000 goal. Steady as she goes.

$500 in a week from clicking here and there, best sidejob ever lol. Also, it’s been a slow week. Things ought to pick up next week, heh.

Remember guys every time someone kills themselves due to bear market the bitcoin they held is basically burned

Bullish.

— Roy Blackstone (@StartaleTV) June 11, 2018

Things You Could Never Imagine

what the hell is going on pic.twitter.com/4CB7RVpzFV

— Jill Carlson (@_jillruth) June 12, 2018

“I’m watching Donald Trump, the current President of the United States meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un for a peace treaty in Singapore, on CNN with commentary from Dennis Rodman wearing a marijuana ICO cryptocurrency t-shirt.”

Never thought that this is real life eh?

Well, it is, lol.

Random Sunday Crypto Musings

Ethereum is deliberating about lowering Casper staking from 1500 ETH (~$1.2 million SGD) to just 32 ETH in Casper + Sharding (~$25,000).Owning a sharding validator might be like owning an apartment building in NYC.I’m psyched to run an ETH sharding val…

Bitmex CEO Podcast

This is Arthur Hayes, I’m a business man not a priest, CEO of BitMEX.

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 11, 2018

Did you see my ride today at #Consensus2018 ? pic.twitter.com/qGznsNMgWo

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) May 14, 2018

Really really good podcast by the CEO of the biggest Bitcoin exchange by volume who was previously a banker in Hong Kong.

Yes, Bitmex. The exchange that allows you to go X100 on a position, to unleash your true degen form.

This is a podcast where I found myself nodding in agreement regarding how simple trading strategies that have been completely eliminated in the traditional world still works extremely well in the crypto space. The past month I’ve made over 10 ETH manually arbing by executing by hand – so I can confirm that this is true. Obviously, opportunities like that will narrow and disappear as the space matures.

In the tail end part of the podcast, he talks about government issued digital currencies and I find his view to be extremely similar to mine – where crypto runs parallel as an alternative to crypto-fiat, instead of total replacement. Hence, my personal bias towards censorship-resistance and privacy to counter the surveillance and restriction of movement issues that will be coming.

His take on most current ICOs being “total dogshit” is same as mine – I am extremely selective for the ICOs that I personally take part in. I have also been echoing the view that the current shift of most ICO allocations being swallowed up by VCs doing SAFTs will get them rekt. I really detest the way that a lot of projects are going about with their ICOs recently.

This is one of the best podcasts that I’ve heard and it reinforces a lot of my views. Maybe mid month I can push out and share a post to be just in time for a nice mid year recap with all the knowledge I’ve been accumulating so far.

Those Damn Digital Tulips

Initial coin offerings (ICOs), sales of cryptocurrency tokens to the general public, have recently been used as a source of crowdfunding for startups in the technology and blockchain industries. 

Even after imputing returns of -100% to ICOs that don’t list their tokens within 60 days and adjusting for the returns of the asset class, the representative ICO investor earns 82%.”

Worth the risk?

That’s a question for you to ask yourself.

Sauce?

Academic paper.

Nuff said.

Interesting IMF Homepage

Do you see something?Here’s the link for yourself. Link 1 for the homepage, and Link 2 for the landing page for their Publications section where it is the lead article for June 2018.I wonder what this all means.Legitimacy for this rat poison digital no…